Bitcoin no doubt is the next gold?
The idea has a lot of insightful appeal. Gold bugs & bitcoin fetishists tend to share a deep doubt of fiat currency & the nation state, an unassailable bullishness about their favored asset class, & an obsessive attention to details of market movements combined with a carefree disinterest in bigger-picture issues.
The idea has become mostly popular as the value invested in
bitcoin & other cryptocurrencies has marched up over the past year. Even
after this week's selloff, provoked by China declaring initial coin offerings
illegal, the value of all cryptocurrencies in circulation is around $155bn,
according to Coinmarketcap.com.
That may sound small compared to the $7.8trn speculative
value of the world's 187 200 metric tons of gold. At the same time, it is
already about a tenth the value of the 40 000 tons of yellow metal used for
investment as bullion bars & coins, & has overtaken the amount held in
gold exchange-traded funds.
At more than $78bn, Bitcoin alone is not far from surpassing
the $90bn-odd invested in all gold ETFs.
There are 2 main reasons to doubt bitcoin's viability as an
investment. One is an engineering issue: Its squeaky infrastructure is prone to
be a turn-off for all but the hobbyist fringe. Another is more rational:
Digital currencies don’t have fundamental value, so have no place in a
portfolio.
Both objections are weaker than you might think.
Take infrastructure. It is surely true that bitcoin's operations
are amazingly clunky. Just confirming a single transaction normally takes more
than an hour or longer - it briefly took more than a day at one point last
month, according to software company Blockchain.info.
Having said that, financial markets are usually built on
similar Rube Goldberg foundations. It is risibly hard for ordinary investors to
buy an actual barrel of crude oil, as Tracy Alloway
of Bloomberg News found out a few years ago.
The economist John Maynard
Keynes , according to one probably
apocryphal story, once measured up the storage capability of the chapel of
King's College, Cambridge after coming worryingly close to having to take
delivery of a month's worth of the UK's wheat supply. Effecting transactions in
the real world is repeatedly so clunky that some banks are by now exploring
using blockchains instead.
What makes markets
investable for the most part is not their physical foundations, but the
superstructure of derivatives contracts, exchanges & clearing houses built
on top.
To date, the world of bitcoin exchanges has been the wild
west. When Mt. Gox filed for bankruptcy in 2014, it said it had lost 850,000
coins worth more than $450m.
Another $70m-odd was stolen in a hack of Bitfinex in 2016.
The likes of Deribit & Bitmex have been offering bitcoin futures &options for a while now, but major institutional investors are only going to partake
if they think the clearing & settlement process is rock-solid & the
exchange itself dependably solvent.
Change on that front is looming. The Chicago Board Options
Exchange is planning to start offering cash-settled bitcoin futures by next
April, CNBC reported last week.
Trading platform LedgerX last month won regulatory endorsement
from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission to act as a clearinghouse for
derivatives settled in digital currencies. The knack to short or take leveraged
positions in digital currencies could open them to a far wider group of
investors.
What, though, is the value of a digital currency?
It is a fair question, but one that could likewise be
leveled at gold. Since Richard
Nixon ended the fixed $35 an ounce
convertibility of gold in 1971, its value has risen at times (the 1970s, the
2000s) & fallen at others.
The best argument to rationalize investing in gold nowadays
is not that it is an eternal "store of value" but that its very eeriness
makes it special: According to modern portfolio theory, you should buy the glittery
stuff not for its superior investment returns , but because it does not correlate
much to other asset classes like stocks, bonds & commodities.
Though, while gold did exhibit weak or negative correlations
to returns on the S&P 500 for much of the 1980s & early 1990s, it has been
positively correlated for long periods since then.
During gold's 2012 run-up, the 2 moved more or less in tandem.
If gold merits investment dollars because its conflicting correlation with
equities helps diversify portfolios, the same argument can be said for bitcoin,
as well.
Digital currencies may be as crude as the original barbarous
relic, but neither is going away anytime soon. If that makes investors in both
look less like seers & more like problem gamblers betting on where a fly
will perch -- well, welcome to financial markets.
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