Bitcoin could rally almost 40 % to hit $6,000 before the end
of the year but investors should prepare for more volatility, according to
industry experts.
The cryptocurrency was trading around $4,333 as at Tuesday.
The third quarter has been one of the most eventful in bitcoin's
history. It’s up over 74 % in the Sept. quarter, with a shifting landscape in
regulation & developments in the underlying tech taking place in the last 3
months.
Here is what has happened so far & what experts think is
coming next.
Infighting & split
Bitcoin faced record-high transaction times because of
congestion on the network. To solve that, the amount of data that could be
processed in one transaction needed to increase. But the community was divided
on how to decipher this.
This resulted in a "fork" earlier this year that
split bitcoin in 2. Bitcoin remained, but a new crytocurrency called bitcoin
cash was created.
On the core bitcoin network, an upgrade known as SegWit2X
was applied, which would help increase the transaction speed. The full back
story can be read here.
Bitcoin's market cap is close to 10 times that of bitcoin
cash. Since it started trading at the starting of August, bitcoin cash has
risen to almost $900 before falling to current levels of around $402, according
to Coinmarketcap.com.
Shift of power to Japan
China was once the leading driver of the bitcoin price. But
regulators in the country have been cracking down on the cryptocurrency,
banning so-called initial coin offerings (ICOs) where companies raise money
through cryptocurrencies.
China's chief bitcoin exchanges OKCoin, Huobi & BTCChina
have stopped trading for customers on the mainland. At the start of the
quarter, Chinese yuan accounted for close to 17 % of bitcoin trade worldwide,
according to industry website CryptoCompare. By the end of the quarter, it was
less than 3 %.
In the meantime, Japan has been more open to
cryptocurrencies. Regulators there legalized bitcoin & major retailers have
started accepting it as payments & last week, Japan's Financial Services
Agency (FSA) officially recognized 11 companies as registered cryptocurrency
exchange operators.
CNBC reported that key Japanese banks are looking into
creating their own digital currency called the J-Coin, with backing from foremost
institutions.
Record high
The third quarter also saw bitcoin hit an all-time high of
$5,013.91, according to data from CoinDesk.
Regulatory support in some markets, likewise rising interest
from institutional investors, has helped boost the value.
$6,000 bitcoin in sight?
"Throughout the year we've been predicting the bitcoin
price will surpass $5,000 & creep closer to $6,000 by year's end. That
prediction is looking more in line with market sentiment these days," Thomas Glucksmann ,
head of APAC business development at Gatecoin, a cryptocurrency exchange, told
CNBC by email.
But he warned investors to prepare for more volatility in
November. This is because some in the bitcoin community may move to reject
SegWit2X. This could create another split in bitcoin, & potentially create
another cryptocurrency.
"Bitcoin's biggest price catalyst is regulation. Japan
has breathed life into the price & as the fog of uncertainty clears in
other jurisdictions, clarity on regulation will release a break on the
price," Hayter told CNBC by email.
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